Showing posts with label peace. Show all posts
Showing posts with label peace. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Gaza blockade: Iran vs. Israel

Iran is threatening to use to its military to break archenemy Israel's blockade of Gaza. How big a problem are we looking at?

Iran is sending three aid ships this week to break the Israeli blockade of Gaza — and in an ominous development, the government is threatening to dispatch military escorts with the vessels. Israel says it will block the Iranian aid ships, purportedly carrying relief supplies and volunteers. Last month, Israel used deadly force to take over a Turkish flagged aid flotilla headed to Gaza. Is this current situation as explosive as it seems, or is Tehran bluffing? (Watch a Russia Today report about Iran's message to Israel.) Here's a quick guide to Iran's plans:

What did Iran say?
A military aide to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that Iran is prepared to use its elite Revolutionary Guard to escort the three Iranian aid ships to Gaza. He added, "It is Iran's duty to defend the innocent people of Gaza."

How will the Israelis respond to the approaching ships?
Israel says it won't let the Iranian vessels break the embargo. "If we didn't let an Irish ship reach Gaza, we are certainly not going to let Iranian ships pass," an unidentified Israeli official told The Jerusalem Post.

Who would win a naval standoff, Israel or Iran?
Most analysts seem to bet on Israel. Even if Iran's Revolutionary Guards follow through, their navy consists mostly of speedboats and light vessels.

So why is Iran making this threat?
There's no shortage of theories. Israeli analyst Meir Javedanfar says Iran is jealous that — following the recent flotilla raid — Turkey is taking over as Gaza's main champion in the region, while London-based Iran expert Mehrdad Khonsari says this is "just publicity" designed to embarrass regional rival Egypt for helping Israel enforce the Gaza blockade.

What if Iran isn't bluffing?
Some analysts don't think it is. Arsen Ostrovsky at Frum Forum says Iran is capable of such a "brazen move," and that if it did send war ships toward Gaza, "Israel would have no option but to respond militarily." He adds: "Let's hope cooler heads prevail at sea."

What's Iran's interest in Gaza?
Iran says it's motivated by humanitarian concerns for Palestinian civilians, while Israel says Iran wants to ship more arms to Hamas, the militant group that controls Gaza.

Where does the U.S. stand?
"I don't think that Iran's intentions vis-a-vis Gaza are benign," said U.S. State Department spokesman Philip Crowley on Monday. At the same time, he added, "We certainly are looking ourselves at trying to find ways of increasing the amount of assistance that goes to the people of Gaza."

Source : theweek.com
READ MORE - Gaza blockade: Iran vs. Israel

Saturday, July 31, 2010

Thailand: Will It Be Civil War?

May 17 2010, 4:50 PM ET | Comment

Outside of academic circles and op-ed pages, however, this scenario has been largely regarded as hysterical. The silliness seemed to peak last month when charitable groups attempted showings of "Hotel Rwanda" in Bangkok on huge outdoor screens -- a cautionary tale for Thais consumed with class hatred.

But now, the Thai capital looks, smells, and sounds like war. Rifle fire crackles throughout the day. On back alleys, protesters vowing to end the "rule of elites" concoct molotov cocktails from spent bottles of Red Bull.

As I write this, pyres demarcating nighttime conflict zones light up glass skyscrapers with a hellish glow. And for the second consecutive night, explosions rumble outside my balcony's sliding glass door.

Bangkok is 10 weeks and more than 60 deaths into a stand-off between the military-backed government and a faction of self-proclaimed "commoners" -- the Red Shirts -- that insists the ruling party must fall.

In recent days, the army has resorted to picking off protesters (the top brass calls them "terrorists") with sniper rifles from afar. But the Red Shirts have defended their encampment: two-square miles of Bangkok's priciest real estate, fortified with concertina wire and bamboo staves.

As Bangkok slips further into chaos, it's unclear if even the Red Shirt guiding statesmen can turn back the legions of Thai men (and some women) wading into near suicidal combat.

"We must accept death," said Pichet Taweesin, a 40-year-old day laborer tending a flaming wall of truck tires. Nearby, teenagers snapped cell phone photos of their friends, striking hooligan poses while gripping homemade gas bombs.

"No one here wants to become a victim," he said. "But I've seen dead bodies of my brothers and sisters in the movement every day. I'm not afraid to die." In another 45 minutes, the crowd we stood in would scramble for cover as rifle bullets pecked at the asphalt.

The army, in testing the protesters' promises to "fight to the death," has drawn thousands of Pichets to these urban front lines. That so many within the Red Shirt camp are compelled to extremism, however, is a partly monster of the movement's own creation.

Broadly speaking, the Red Shirts are a loose assemblage encompassing the disgruntled laboring classes, new-money Thais with an anti-establishment grudge and, as many in the Thai media allege, poor Thais paid about $13 a day to rally.

The guiding leadership -- parliamentarians, aging activists and celebrities -- often invoke the language of non-violent, civil disobedience. But the movement has also tolerated a militant streak, personified by a renegade army major general -- Khattiya "Seh Daeng" Sawisdipol -- who flouted superiors and ordered his personal militia to protect protesters with force.

Khattiya died on May 17, days after taking a sniper's bullet to the temple in a killing the government disavows. His political martyrdom was one of the sparks igniting the street violence that's since engulfed Bangkok.

Khattiya's disciples' sense of invincibility was also fostered by the military itself, which for weeks allowed protesters to push the government around before responding with extreme force.

Since rallies began in mid-March, protesters have mobbed Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's offices and private residence, splattering his gates with their own blood in a ritual curse. They have climbed parliament's gates and yanked guns from security forces.

Even troops themselves fled a bloody raid last month after mysterious black-clad men with rifles -- linked to Seh Daeng by government spokesmen -- emerged and fired back. A throng of protesters later took troops hostage, seized dozens of assault rifles and dismantled six armed personnel carriers with tools and bare hands.

As this conflict has dragged on, sober voices inside the movement have grown noticeably quieter. One of the camp's most moderate statesman, Veera Musikapong, has not appeared in public for days. The Thai media has ruminated over a split within the Red Shirts that has left hardliners with more sway.

Remaining Red Shirt leaders, however, insist they are but slingshot-toting Davids, they say, ground down by Goliaths with power, influence and assault rifles.

But moderate Red Shirt supporters such as Prateep Ungsongtham Hata, a renowned slum activist, openly fret the movement is sliding towards a more shadowy, militant incarnation. By setting up a safe haven for less-daring protesters outside the conflict zone, she has attempted to lend a sense of orderly demonstration to the battles raging just a mile away.

"There are two ways out of this," Prateep explained, ducking into an empty guard shack. The windows were papered over with yesterday's newsprint to provide concealment from snipers.

"The government can stop the killing. The two sides can start chatting," she said. "But the government leaders will have to stop always pointing the finger at us and point it at themselves."

As for civil war?

"If the government keeps on killing," she said, "these people will go underground, basing themselves in the provinces. When you can't fight openly, you become unseen."

Prateep's eyes settled on a newspaper, pasted over the window and illuminated by sunlight. In the lead photo, blood pooled beneath the head of a protester shot dead the day before.

"Honestly, I'm very depressed," she said. "I never thought it would come to this."

Source : theatlantic.com
READ MORE - Thailand: Will It Be Civil War?

Thailand: Will It Be Civil War?

May 17 2010, 4:50 PM ET | Comment

Outside of academic circles and op-ed pages, however, this scenario has been largely regarded as hysterical. The silliness seemed to peak last month when charitable groups attempted showings of "Hotel Rwanda" in Bangkok on huge outdoor screens -- a cautionary tale for Thais consumed with class hatred.

But now, the Thai capital looks, smells, and sounds like war. Rifle fire crackles throughout the day. On back alleys, protesters vowing to end the "rule of elites" concoct molotov cocktails from spent bottles of Red Bull.

As I write this, pyres demarcating nighttime conflict zones light up glass skyscrapers with a hellish glow. And for the second consecutive night, explosions rumble outside my balcony's sliding glass door.

Bangkok is 10 weeks and more than 60 deaths into a stand-off between the military-backed government and a faction of self-proclaimed "commoners" -- the Red Shirts -- that insists the ruling party must fall.

In recent days, the army has resorted to picking off protesters (the top brass calls them "terrorists") with sniper rifles from afar. But the Red Shirts have defended their encampment: two-square miles of Bangkok's priciest real estate, fortified with concertina wire and bamboo staves.

As Bangkok slips further into chaos, it's unclear if even the Red Shirt guiding statesmen can turn back the legions of Thai men (and some women) wading into near suicidal combat.

"We must accept death," said Pichet Taweesin, a 40-year-old day laborer tending a flaming wall of truck tires. Nearby, teenagers snapped cell phone photos of their friends, striking hooligan poses while gripping homemade gas bombs.

"No one here wants to become a victim," he said. "But I've seen dead bodies of my brothers and sisters in the movement every day. I'm not afraid to die." In another 45 minutes, the crowd we stood in would scramble for cover as rifle bullets pecked at the asphalt.

The army, in testing the protesters' promises to "fight to the death," has drawn thousands of Pichets to these urban front lines. That so many within the Red Shirt camp are compelled to extremism, however, is a partly monster of the movement's own creation.

Broadly speaking, the Red Shirts are a loose assemblage encompassing the disgruntled laboring classes, new-money Thais with an anti-establishment grudge and, as many in the Thai media allege, poor Thais paid about $13 a day to rally.

The guiding leadership -- parliamentarians, aging activists and celebrities -- often invoke the language of non-violent, civil disobedience. But the movement has also tolerated a militant streak, personified by a renegade army major general -- Khattiya "Seh Daeng" Sawisdipol -- who flouted superiors and ordered his personal militia to protect protesters with force.

Khattiya died on May 17, days after taking a sniper's bullet to the temple in a killing the government disavows. His political martyrdom was one of the sparks igniting the street violence that's since engulfed Bangkok.

Khattiya's disciples' sense of invincibility was also fostered by the military itself, which for weeks allowed protesters to push the government around before responding with extreme force.

Since rallies began in mid-March, protesters have mobbed Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's offices and private residence, splattering his gates with their own blood in a ritual curse. They have climbed parliament's gates and yanked guns from security forces.

Even troops themselves fled a bloody raid last month after mysterious black-clad men with rifles -- linked to Seh Daeng by government spokesmen -- emerged and fired back. A throng of protesters later took troops hostage, seized dozens of assault rifles and dismantled six armed personnel carriers with tools and bare hands.

As this conflict has dragged on, sober voices inside the movement have grown noticeably quieter. One of the camp's most moderate statesman, Veera Musikapong, has not appeared in public for days. The Thai media has ruminated over a split within the Red Shirts that has left hardliners with more sway.

Remaining Red Shirt leaders, however, insist they are but slingshot-toting Davids, they say, ground down by Goliaths with power, influence and assault rifles.

But moderate Red Shirt supporters such as Prateep Ungsongtham Hata, a renowned slum activist, openly fret the movement is sliding towards a more shadowy, militant incarnation. By setting up a safe haven for less-daring protesters outside the conflict zone, she has attempted to lend a sense of orderly demonstration to the battles raging just a mile away.

"There are two ways out of this," Prateep explained, ducking into an empty guard shack. The windows were papered over with yesterday's newsprint to provide concealment from snipers.

"The government can stop the killing. The two sides can start chatting," she said. "But the government leaders will have to stop always pointing the finger at us and point it at themselves."

As for civil war?

"If the government keeps on killing," she said, "these people will go underground, basing themselves in the provinces. When you can't fight openly, you become unseen."

Prateep's eyes settled on a newspaper, pasted over the window and illuminated by sunlight. In the lead photo, blood pooled beneath the head of a protester shot dead the day before.

"Honestly, I'm very depressed," she said. "I never thought it would come to this."

Source : theatlantic.com
READ MORE - Thailand: Will It Be Civil War?

Sunday, July 25, 2010

Hmong Refugees Live in Fear in Laos and Thailand

By William Lloyd George / Chiang Mai Saturday, Jul. 24, 2010

Recently U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Laos Foreign Minister Thongloun Sisoulith met in Washington for the highest-level talks between the two countries since the end of the Vietnam War. For the U.S., the meeting was part of a strategy to re-engage with Asia, while Laos hoped the D.C. visit would boost trade. After years of frosty relations following America's carpet-bombing of Laos in the 1960s and '70s, the meeting was overall a symbolic break from the past.

Improved relations with the U.S. would surely benefit most citizens of Laos — though not everyone is so upbeat about the possibility. Meeting TIME at a secret location in Thailand, a Laotian Hmong refugee who recently escaped a repatriation camp in Laos says the Washington exchange will do nothing to help thousands of Hmong still being persecuted in Laos. "They are only talking about imports and exports, not how to help Hmong people who once supported America," said Pao Chang using an alias for security.

During the Vietnam War, the CIA enlisted more than 60,000 Hmong from the Royal Lao Army to form a secret army to disrupt Communist supply lines and rescue American pilots. Fierce mercenaries, the Hmong acted as an effective counter to North Vietnam's growing support base in Laos. When the Communists won and the CIA left, a handful of senior Hmong were flown out, but the majority that remained faced Communist retribution for siding with America. The Pathet Lao publicly announced they would wipe out the Hmong and attacks intensified. Some Hmong groups fled deep into the jungle — where more than 3,000 continue to live to this day — the rest fled to Thailand seeking asylum, where they remained until recently.

On Dec. 28, 2009, Pao Chang and more than 4,000 other Hmong asylum seekers in Thailand were rounded up by local Thai authorities and forcibly sent back to Laos. "We based these actions on our immigration law, which considers them to be illegal migrants, so they were dealt with accordingly," Panitan Wattanayagorn, spokesman for the Thai prime minister, told TIME. Only six years earlier, Thai authorities had helped resettle 14,000 Hmong refugees in the U.S. The Thai about-face on its Hmong population sparked an international furor, with countries including America and Australia condemning Thailand for refusing to protect the minority group. Although Thailand never signed the United Nations Convention on Refugees, the U.N. was outraged the government had involuntarily sent back refugees. "To proceed would not only endanger the protection of the refugees, but set a very grave international example," said the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, António Guterres, at the time.

Even more troubling for the United Nations were the 158 Hmong refugees being held in the Nong Kai immigration detention center, who had been granted refugee status and invited to resettle by America, Netherlands, Australia and Canada. "We were ready to leave," said Pao Chang, showing his family's acceptance letter from a third country along with tickets for a flight out. "Then Thai authorities came to us on the day and just said, 'No, you can't go. We have an agreement with Laos that no Hmong are to leave Thailand.'" Asked for comment, Wattanayagorn said the move came only after "Laos had assured Thailand the returning Hmong would not face persecution."

Thailand's involvement in the U.S.'s "Secret War" in Cambodia and Laos is often overlooked. Allied with the U.S. against the Communists in Laos and Vietnam, the Thai military trained many of the senior Hmong leaders. Times have clearly changed. Thailand is now Laos's number one foreign investor, and according to Joe Davy, a Hmong advocate, deporting the Hmong is just another example of political fence-mending following years of border conflict. "The main reason Thailand sent them back was pressure from Laos, which has always accused Thailand of harboring elements of the Hmong resistance," Davy says.

After a series of multilateral meetings in December 2009, the Laotian government agreed that the 158 registered refugees could resettle elsewhere on the condition they spent 30 days in Laos. "They told us if we were still not happy in Laos, we could leave, but it was just a trick," says Pao Chang. A few days later, says Pao Chang, Thai soldiers forced him onto a bus and took him to Laos where authorities ordered him not to tell foreigners he wanted to leave. He says he was then sent to a repatriation camp, where armed guards — many of whom had fought against the rag-tag groups of Hmong fighters who remain in the jungle — had his family under 24-hour surveillance. Pao Chang says he was given a "flimsy house and a tiny plot of bad farmland." Says Pao Chang with tears in eyes: "The conditions were unbearable; there were no schools and only two nurses for thousands of people.

In order to ease the international community's concerns, the Laotian authorities organized two official visits for foreign diplomats. During one visit, Pao Chang says a senior commander gave him a script ordering him to tell diplomats he was being looked after and had no desire to move. Those who refused to abide by the script were denied day passes to leave the camps. After unknown assailants burned down camp farmland, Pao Chang decided he had to escape. "If I stayed, they eventually would have found a way to kill me," he says.

Pao Chang escaped the camp, traveling through Laos at night without identification and illegally crossed the Mekong River. Chang says, "If the authorities would have caught me, I would have been executed." Now in Thailand, the future of Pao Chang and other families who have followed remains unclear. He has papers from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) certifying his refugee status, but he has little faith they will protect them. "Last time I showed this paper to Thailand they hit me on the head," Pao Chang says.

Wattanayagorn says if they are caught, returning Hmong asylum seekers would be treated as illegal migrants and sent back to Laos — regardless of U.N. documents. According to Kraisak Choonhavan, MP of the Democrat Party, Thailand has never signed an international refugee treaty so it is not bound by UNHCR rules, but even Choonhavan didn't know why Thailand wasn't letting the Hmong families invited by third countries leave. "There is something strange going on here," he says.

source : www.time.com
READ MORE - Hmong Refugees Live in Fear in Laos and Thailand

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