
By Naira Hayrumyan
ArmeniaNow correspondent
Today, May 12, marks the 16th anniversary of the establishment of ceasefire in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone. The current negotiation process within the framework of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) Minsk Group has not led to the resolution of the conflict, and, therefore, the ceasefire agreement signed by the warring parties in 1994 is considered to be the only functional act of the negotiation process now.
Sixteen years after signing a truce the parties to the conflict still hold antagonistic positions, those they had from the very beginning. Azerbaijan insists on revising the results of the 1991-1994 war that it had itself unleashed against the Karabakh Armenians seeking to end Baku sovereignty over their land. Azerbaijan seeks to restore the territorial integrity of its Soviet self and does not admit an independent status of Karabakh. The Armenian side, meanwhile, holds that de-facto independent Karabakh cannot become part of Azerbaijan again.
In recent years the negotiating process acquired yet another component – Azerbaijan’s war rhetoric. At the highest level official Baku declares its right to recover territorial integrity by military force.
These bellicose statements have an apparent impact on the situation along the Azerbaijani-Karabakh border. According to the Department of Information and Propaganda of the NKR Defense Ministry, in the first quarter of 2010 alone the Azerbaijani side1,088 times broke the ceasefire regime, firing from various types of arms, releasing a total of 7,500 rounds in the direction of the Karabakh positions. Shelling was particularly intensive in March when 454 cases of ceasefire violation by the Azeri side (with 2,872 shots fired) were registered. (Guilt in violation of the ceasefire splits according to national persuasions. The Azeris always blame the Armenians, and vice versa.)
As the former Russian co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk Group Vladimir Kazimirov writes that while Azerbaijan accuses Armenia of failing to fulfill the demands stated in four UN resolutions on Karabakh (mainly regarding the withdrawal of Armenian troops), “Azerbaijan itself has failed to fulfill the key requirement of the resolutions – cessation of hostilities, which then made it impossible to fulfill the remaining demands (return of territories and displaced persons, the reopening of communications, etc.).”
Despite the fact that efforts on a Karabakh settlement intensified after Armenia and Turkey moved to normalize their relations, experts speak about the impossibility of finding a speedy solution to the problem, even under pressure from world powers.
Advisor to the NKR President, General Vitaly Balasanyan believes that Azerbaijan’s aggressive statements suit some powers, because it gives them a reason to intervene actively in the affairs of the South Caucasus region. “Turkey is trying to use Azerbaijan’s blackmail to weaken Armenia’s position in the normalization process,” said the general.
Azerbaijani Ambassador to Russia Polad Bulbuloglu made strong statements on May 9 saying that the Azerbaijani people must be ready for a new war in Karabakh. In response, Armenia’s Ambassador to Russia Oleg Yesayan emphasized that the militarist calls of his Azerbaijani counterpart are folly, because war will not solve, but will rather aggravate the existing problems.
Sixteen years after signing a truce the parties to the conflict still hold antagonistic positions, those they had from the very beginning. Azerbaijan insists on revising the results of the 1991-1994 war that it had itself unleashed against the Karabakh Armenians seeking to end Baku sovereignty over their land. Azerbaijan seeks to restore the territorial integrity of its Soviet self and does not admit an independent status of Karabakh. The Armenian side, meanwhile, holds that de-facto independent Karabakh cannot become part of Azerbaijan again.
In recent years the negotiating process acquired yet another component – Azerbaijan’s war rhetoric. At the highest level official Baku declares its right to recover territorial integrity by military force.
These bellicose statements have an apparent impact on the situation along the Azerbaijani-Karabakh border. According to the Department of Information and Propaganda of the NKR Defense Ministry, in the first quarter of 2010 alone the Azerbaijani side1,088 times broke the ceasefire regime, firing from various types of arms, releasing a total of 7,500 rounds in the direction of the Karabakh positions. Shelling was particularly intensive in March when 454 cases of ceasefire violation by the Azeri side (with 2,872 shots fired) were registered. (Guilt in violation of the ceasefire splits according to national persuasions. The Azeris always blame the Armenians, and vice versa.)
As the former Russian co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk Group Vladimir Kazimirov writes that while Azerbaijan accuses Armenia of failing to fulfill the demands stated in four UN resolutions on Karabakh (mainly regarding the withdrawal of Armenian troops), “Azerbaijan itself has failed to fulfill the key requirement of the resolutions – cessation of hostilities, which then made it impossible to fulfill the remaining demands (return of territories and displaced persons, the reopening of communications, etc.).”
Despite the fact that efforts on a Karabakh settlement intensified after Armenia and Turkey moved to normalize their relations, experts speak about the impossibility of finding a speedy solution to the problem, even under pressure from world powers.
Advisor to the NKR President, General Vitaly Balasanyan believes that Azerbaijan’s aggressive statements suit some powers, because it gives them a reason to intervene actively in the affairs of the South Caucasus region. “Turkey is trying to use Azerbaijan’s blackmail to weaken Armenia’s position in the normalization process,” said the general.
Azerbaijani Ambassador to Russia Polad Bulbuloglu made strong statements on May 9 saying that the Azerbaijani people must be ready for a new war in Karabakh. In response, Armenia’s Ambassador to Russia Oleg Yesayan emphasized that the militarist calls of his Azerbaijani counterpart are folly, because war will not solve, but will rather aggravate the existing problems.
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